Global manufacturing faces fragile gains amid trade policy shifts

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Factories worldwide are struggling to navigate an increasingly unpredictable trade landscape. Fresh concerns over possible new US tariffs are weighing on confidence across key manufacturing hubs in Asia, Europe and North America. Recent data shows a fragile mix of modest recoveries and deepening contractions, as businesses brace for political negotiations and looming deadlines that could reshape global supply chains.

Recent surveys highlight how critical global trade dynamics have become to the health of factories in China, Japan, South Korea and India. While some regions have managed to expand output despite economic headwinds, the wider picture remains fragile. Analysts note that businesses are already factoring in the possibility of prolonged disruptions if tariff deals fail to materialize in time.

Asian factories show mixed signals amid uncertainty

Across Asia, factories are producing a varied picture of resilience and risk. China’s Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in June, beating expectations and signaling expansion for the first time in months. This comes despite an official survey showing activity shrinking for a third straight month, underscoring how domestic demand and export orders remain volatile.

Japan’s final au Jibun Bank PMI edged up to 50.1, marking its first growth in more than a year, driven by stronger output. Yet, new orders fell as manufacturers worried about future US tariffs on critical exports. In South Korea, factory activity shrank for the fifth consecutive month. The contraction slowed slightly following the resolution of a snap presidential election, which had previously left businesses in limbo for half a year.

India stands out as the region’s strongest performer. The country’s factory output jumped to a 14-month high in June, powered by a surge in international orders that has sparked a record pace of hiring. India’s robust domestic demand and export competitiveness continue to shield its factories from some of the risks faced by its Asian peers.

Europe’s factories find isolated bright spots as risks persist

In Europe, the story remains uneven. The euro zone’s HCOB manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.5 in June, its highest level since August 2022 but still below the 50 mark that indicates growth. National surveys revealed sharper contrasts within the bloc. Ireland posted a 37-month high of 53.7, while Spain and the Netherlands also recorded solid expansions. Germany, however, despite recording its strongest PMI in nearly three years, remained in contraction.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned policymakers that the global environment has fundamentally shifted since the pandemic. Speaking in Sintra, Portugal, she pointed to an era of heightened uncertainty that could make inflation and factory input costs more volatile in the months ahead. Euro zone inflation data for June aligned with the ECB’s 2% target, signaling that the period of runaway prices has likely ended, but demand-side risks persist.

Britain’s manufacturing sector showed signs of softening its prolonged decline. Some companies appear to be working through pent-up domestic investment that was postponed during earlier periods of political and economic turbulence. Yet, analysts caution that these gains remain fragile as new global tariff threats and supply chain complications continue to loom.

US factory contraction and looming tariff deadlines weigh on sentiment

On the other side of the Atlantic, US factories are under pressure from weak demand and an uncertain policy backdrop. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI rose marginally to 49.0 in June from 48.5 in May. While delivery times improved, new orders fell for a fifth straight month, factory employment slipped, and input prices edged higher. Combined with soft housing and consumer spending data, the figures hint at broader economic softness even as GDP may get a temporary lift from a shrinking trade deficit.

A crucial deadline is approaching that could further reshape the outlook for global manufacturers. By July 9, major US trading partners are pushing to strike deals with Washington to avoid steeper tariffs. China remains engaged in negotiations, but Japan and South Korea have yet to secure exemptions for key exports like automobiles. Meanwhile, the European Union is set for new talks in Washington aimed at averting escalating duties.

Failure to reach agreements could send fresh shocks through global supply chains, raising costs for manufacturers and consumers alike. As trade policymakers race to finalize deals, businesses face the challenge of adjusting output and inventory strategies to manage potential disruptions.

The months ahead will test whether fragile factory recoveries can gain traction or falter under renewed trade tensions. For manufacturing leaders, careful monitoring of political developments in the US and major trading partners will be essential. Many will be weighing how to adjust sourcing strategies, diversify suppliers, or shift production in anticipation of further tariff changes.

Sources:

• Reuters: Global economy and Asian factories